For Wales, see Scotland?
Where would a ‘yes’ vote in a Scottish referendum on Independence leave Wales?
In the late 19th century the Encyclopaedia Britannia infamously recorded the entry ‘For Wales, see England.’ Almost a hundred years later, one of Wales’ most eminent historians K.O. Morgan was musing in the aftermath of devolution that we may be witnessing a new watchword ‘For Wales – see Scotland’. His view was that while there were several superficial similarities between the Scottish case and the Welsh case, the historical differences were significant and would render a simplistic read – across from Scotland to Wales inaccurate at best, dangerously misleading at worst.
In many ways his argument has been borne out by the dynamics of devolution in the two countries. In Scotland there has been an enormous growth in support for the SNP and Independence for Scotland is a genuine prospect routinely discussed as practical policy rather than abstract aspiration. In Wales, by contrast, Plaid Cymru’s growth has been steady rather than spectacular, and while one could quite happily argue that devolution is now the settled will of the Welsh people – see the latest poll from the Assembly commission showing the historically small minority that now support the abolition of the Assembly – the main course of our current constitutional debate is the rather limited debate as to whether the Assembly should receive law-making powers in one fell swoop via a referendum or rather acquire these powers (with Westminster approval) in a piecemeal fashion.
This constitutional debate is regularly discussed as creating a proper Parliament (like Scotland) in Wales. But is there a danger that while Wales is discussing taking a few faltering steps towards the start line, the Scots are already well on their way and entering the final straight? Indeed one might ask what would happen to (the debate in) Wales if Scotland were to become independent.
Though K.O. Morgan rightly warns us about assuming a simple read-across from Scotland to Wales, it is impossible to imagine a situation where the increasingly detailed and engaged debate in Scotland fails to have an impact on thinking about devolution in Wales. So first up, just as it did in 1997, debate in Scotland will doubtless impact in Wales. This much is fairly straight forward. But what happens if the SNP Government secures a majority in the Scottish Parliament to call an independence referendum sometime in 2010? Such a scenario would have seemed far- fetched in late 2007 but, given Labour’s pronouncements on calling the SNP’s bluff, don’t bet against an Independence referendum in Scotland this side of the 2011 elections. An Independence referendum in Scotland would raise a whole number of questions in the Welsh context.
The first and most simple would be the timing of our imminent referendum. There are those that might argue that holding both referendums around the same time would cause confusion in the minds of the voters and encourage voters in Wales (for good or ill) to think that by voting for law-making powers they were voting for a far more significant measure of Home Rule. On the other hand you could argue that holding two referendums around the same time could lead to a serious and important debate across the UK about the constitutional future of Britain. This might actually lead to a more informed debate and more coverage of the Welsh question in the UK media.
More complexity is added to the mix if we end up with a multi-option referendum in Scotland with fiscal autonomy offered to the Scottish people. Under such a scenario one could be fairly sure that fiscal autonomy – a policy supported clearly in Scottish opinion polls and by many of the leading parties and politicians – would certainly win the day. This would have a significant impact on Wales as it would undoubtedly lead to the revision of the grossly unfair Barnett Formula.
But what if the Scots were to vote for independence? The first thing to remember is that the SNP government is talking about seeking a mandate to begin negotiations with the UK government about independence. Therefore there would certainly be a period of detailed negotiations, where arrangements about becoming independent would be fleshed out. In the longer term these negotiations would clearly provide a template for similar negotiations in the Welsh context. But let us not also ignore the huge changes that would come for those of us left in the wake of Scottish independence.
For starters where would we live? Great Britain was created with the union of the Scottish and English crowns by the Act of Union of two sovereign states in 1707. The dissolution of the union would then leave Scotland and England or, a little more accurately, Greater England. I’m not for a moment suggesting that those thinking of a name for the remainder of the UK would choose the name Greater England but, in practice, given the enormous population and economic dominance of England within what would be left, Greater England could be an appropriate description of this state. At that point the case for a fundamental discussion of the relationship between Wales, England and Northern Ireland – along with the possibility in my view of continuing discussions with Scotland and Ireland – would open up a whole range of new and exciting possibilities.
Futurology is a dangerous sport for anyone, but we may well be seeing the dying embers of the British state, which could, in turn, be replaced by a partnership of equals and far more positive relations between the countries of these islands. Wales seems destined to play the role of a follower rather than a leader in this process at the moment but, sooner or later, these are debates that must be had with confidence and vision and, in so doing, we might finally merit a description of ‘Wales’, rather than a read-across from either of our near neighbours.
Dafydd Trystan
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Can I correct you Liam on what you said in regards to that there are no Welsh Americans...please look at the last census in America and it will clearly state many hundreds of thousands regarding themselves as having Welsh heritage and the profile of Wales, thanks to devolution, is growing, not just in America, but around the world.
Lastly Scotland doesn't owe 'us' anything. It is the British government that owes billions to the Scots for their oil and the Scottish banks got into this mess under Westminster not Holyrood; Westminster's borrowing helped fuel the global downturn and drag all the nations on these islands into a recession...again.
but my one question is an interesting one
when the united kingdom was formed we were wales scotland irland
so since then we the people of the united kingdom have aquired more land
so due to when england conquered wales hundreds of years ago we married some of the welsh princes into our kingdom thus creating a union same thing with the scotland thus the scots had the stuat era of our history
so after our countrys unified so did our royal family
so if a union did happen who would have control of the terratorys that the uk controls
Turks and Caicos Islands
Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
Saint Helena (including Ascension, Tristan da Cunha)
Pitcairn Islands
Montserrat
Gibraltar
Falkland Islands
Cayman Islands
British Virgin Islands
British Indian Ocean Territory
British Antarctic Territory
Bermuda
Anguilla
so what do ya think will happen if britain disbanded and went there seprate ways there would be no british army just our own really
so would they belong to just the english which aint fair really cause your history and these lands due to act of union are just as strong as the english
sorry for spelling lol in a hurry for work and using iphone lol
Scottish independence will be beneficial for Wales, England, and even Northern Ireland, IMHO.
"The West Lothian question must be answer I admit."
Simple - Scottish independence solves it!
Wales may not have the oil but we have slate, coal, some of the rarest gold and some of the best live stock farms in the world. Not to mention one of the oldest languages in Europe which has huge selling potential once we get over this language "divide" you speak of. Oh and by the way I don't speak Welsh.
The only reason there ain't that many Welsh-Americans is because most Americans are unaware the have Welsh ancestry with 7 of the top 10 surnames in America being Welsh. To put it simply independence is the only progressive way forward for Wales!
Not only that but England has its own coal reserves which are as large as the welsh ones although admittedly their consumption is higher.
As for power much of the Welsh power is Nuclear and there is no reason to assume that an independent Wales could afford to build or even maintain the existing ones which have a limited life span. Also does Wales have the trained personnel required. Many of the staff at Wilfa are English and there’s no guarantee they will stay. Although I can’t speak for the other stations.
As for water i must admit I couldn’t say. It’s not a subject that has ever been mentioned to me apart from in connection with Tryweryn which the nationalists seem a bit obsessed by considering as far as i can make out only 48 people appear to have had to move from the valley.
Water and electricity is also exported to England.
What exactly does England have?
The West Lothian question must be answer I admit. The current question is very unfair to those of us in England and to a lesser extent Wales who are losing the post code lottery’s compared to Scotland.
However this article is correct I that Scotland’s move towards independence is different. Their independence came to an end much later than that of Wales and was a union rather than a conquest. Scotland is very different to England in many ways. Wales is less different and has greater economic reliance on England. Wales has no oil. Wales does not have nearly as many Welsh-Americans as either Scotland or Ireland just waiting to help us out. Scotland does not have the divide of language often found in north Wales where English speakers fear discrimination they already face in certain sectors would increase should Wales ever become independent.
I believe that the greater England and Scotland described could both prosper but an independent Wales would not.